Showing posts with label Science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Science. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Wielding 'Wonders' While Hating Science



"There is no problem that surgery cannot make worse."
-- An orthopedic surgeon

_________________________

It was mentioned in an earlier essay here that Barack Obama’s Inaugural Address included one memorably stupid phrase. But that should be emended. Mr. Obama’s address included several ridiculous statements, perhaps this chief among them:
We will restore science
to its rightful place…
The most casual witness to Mr. Obama’s first words as president should have immediately understood what was meant: Mr. Obama was uttering a great boast. He and his many “fellow citizens” would lift science from the dustbin where it had been tossed by the preceding presidency. Mr. Obama implied he was not a small-minded Luddite smashing the machinery of science; George W. Bush was the very emblem of intellectual torpor, whereas Mr. Obama is enlightened, progressive. He and his followers will restore science’s boldest claims:
We will restore science
to its rightful place,
and wield technology's
wonders
to raise health care's quality
and lower its cost.
America will turn its hopes to the competency of men and women devoted to the deepest inquiries into existence, matter, nature, energy; the human body. America the Great, consisting of the most expansive and excellent minds united to Mr. Obama’s new vision, will reject the intellectual indifference of the past, an indifference born of the the fear of change. America will reject those who deny the consensus of scientists that man-made global warming is real. America will reject the refusal to use human embryos for the harvesting of stem-cells, cells that hold so much promise for the infirm. Science has been forsaken for far too long. The time has come to restore science to its rightful place.

It is a bold boast. It is nearly a believable one. But boldness does not make it true: saying that science shall be restored falls rather flat when considering the source of so great a claim. In fact, hearing the leader of the Democratic Party speak of science in such glowing terms is nearly risible. It is hard not to laugh simply because the Democratic Party, particularly its most liberal members, hate science. They always have.

_____________________

What do the following things have in common:
  • The Industrial Revolution†
  • Global warming gases
  • Nuclear waste
  • The China Syndrome
  • Radioactive Fallout
  • Hiroshima
  • Gas chambers
  • Killer bees
  • Gypsy moth infestations
  • Asbestos building products
  • Lead paint
  • Internal combustion engines
  • Jet-powered airliners
  • Laser-guided missiles
  • Dumps filled with computer components
  • Blood letting
  • Botched abortions
  • Mercury-laced flourescent bulbs
  • Antibiotic-resistant bacteria
  • Thalidomide babies
  • Toxic-shock syndrome
  • Accidental deaths by anesthesia
  • Accidental deaths by prescribed pharmaceuticals
  • Oxycodone addictions
  • Suicide as a result of depression medications
  • Cancers caused by exposure to x-rays/radiation
  • Lobotomies
  • Electro-shock therapy
It is perfectly clear what all of these have in common: they are the fruits of science. Not bad science. Not rogue science, but science in its purest form, even its most beneficent form: Good things were offered, bad things followed. Each good thing was offered as proof of science’s interest in helping; each was offered as a solution to a problem. Who could have predicted that the solutions would cause new problems?

Surely Mr. Obama could not be talking about restoring science to the levels we’ve known in the past, right? Surely he does not mean restoring science to the place where it kills, poisons and maims humanity, and ruins the earth’s environment. Surely he is not suggesting that all those without access to healthcare have nothing but an unalloyed desire to see doctors at any cost, the very doctors who have killed, maimed and wounded so many. (Where is a person most likely to contract a necrotizing, flesh-eating bacteria? That’s right. In a hospital.) He could not be asking us to believe that “technology’s wonders” are particularly wonderful, could he?

No. He could not be.

HOW, AND WHY, LIBERALISM HATES SCIENCE

Barack Obama said yesterday that his administration would not be one that would "deny facts.” (This will be explored more fully in a separate column.) Without making any great leaps of faith, it can be concluded that Mr. Obama is contrasting himself -- again and enduringly -- with his predecessor. But the question is what Mr. Obama means by facts. Does he mean by facts the sort of facts used by the World Wildlife Foundation in its “Save the Polar Bear” campaign, facts like 40%-50% of all polar bears MIGHT vanish by 2050, or that polar bears COULD be extinct by 2100? Does he mean by facts that humans MUST change their ways or the world MIGHT be irreversibly damaged by profound and unmitigated warming? Does Mr. Obama believe that propositions built around such conditionals as “MIGHT” and “COULD” and “MAY” and “PROBABLY” are facts? Does Mr. Obama believe such non causa pro causa fallacies endemic to global warming "science" are the sort of "facts" that should rule the Oval Office? Apparently he does.

Liberals hate science for a whole host of reasons. The most important reason is that science stands in the way of one of liberalism’s most precious beliefs: that all humans are created equal. Egalitarianism is arguably liberalism’s principal tenet; it is its chief cornerstone. Ironically it is a religious and not a scientific conviction: there is actually nothing scientific about it at all (nor is there anything Judeo-Christian about it, either). It is a perfectly humanistic belief, based solely in faith. It apparently does not matter to liberals that Darwin himself would laugh at its naïveté and senselessness. Evolution is unarguably all about inequalities; if all human forbears had coursed through time as equals, the genus, and not just the species, would have been extinct long ago. Inequalities are the very engine of evolution. “Survival of the fittest” and “natural selection” are about one speciatic characteristic having an advantage over another. Progress, if we can call it that, is founded on inequalities. The human species has advanced simply by competition, with the spoils going to the advantaged.

Hence, liberalism hates science. The simplicity of science in animal breeding proves the case of evolution; not all dogs, or horses, or chimpanzees, are equal. But this simplicity is despised by liberalism, as it stands in the way of its political paradigm. Equality under law is one thing, and it is hard to dispute. But equality of beginnings and ends; to promise equality at the start and the finish, at the beginning of a game and its end, is the religious, almost manic, goal of liberalism. Supervising, so to speak, social outcomes is invasive and contra-scientific. But not only is “just trying” sufficient to earn liberalism’s stamp of equality, just “being” is sufficient. The losers get the winnings, even if the winnings were rightfully earned by the winners. To liberals, everyone gets a medal; everyone gets an A; everyone is above average.

But there is an Orwellian aspect to all of this: All men may be created equal, but in liberalism, there are some who are more equal than others. If a liberal accepts Darwin’s theory of natural selection, that there are profound differences between not only the species but even within the human species, he does so assuming that some privileged members of the human species are sufficiently advanced to direct the evolution of the rest who are not as privileged. The “elite” know what is best, not simply politically, but in evolutionary terms: the phalanx of liberal psychotherapists are here to shape and mold, serving as facilitators of “real change,” moving all toward a better humanity. However, this class of facilitators is not equal to those they facilitate; but the whole edifice falls at elitists' feet if they permit themselves one moment of honest reflection.

How else do liberals hate science? They hate it when it does not speak to their deepest prejudices: gay marriage advocates continue to declare that science has shown a genetic cause of homosexuality, even when science has shown no such thing (more on this tomorrow, by the way, in a devastating argument). The science of the gay gene is not only problematic and presumptuous. (Are all things genetically caused desirable and acceptable, and who decides? Are there irresistible, immutable genetic influences on gay behaviors, or do gay behaviors affect the genetic code?) The science of the gay gene is not scientific. It is really wishful political and religious thinking. It seeks to find a genetic cause of a sexual aberration, solely to say the aberration is equal to the norm: Two gay men living in "committed, loving relationship" is equal to a man and woman married, raising children.

Liberals hate the science associated with global warming. They tout consensus; they praise it as if it is incontrovertible proof. But they ignore the facts; they ignore the fallacy (consensus gentium) -- the irrationality -- of the idea of submitting to pop-opinion. Who cares that the mass of scientists who sign on as members of the “consensus” possess expertise in areas irrelevant to atmospheric science? When an electrical engineer, or a radiologist or histologist, signs on to the theory that human influence on TEMPERATURE trumps even the sun -- that humans can influence temperature beyond “repair” -- attentive folks note that liberals disregard the glaring fact that the consensus is rigged by experts ignorant of the facts. The political leverage and convenience gained by liberals who ascribe to global warming “science” is all about control of society and manufacturing, and the redistribution of wealth. Global warming scenarios justify political seizure of industry, profits, assets, all for the "safety of the planet." Any real science that might undermine the liberal premise, or at least give a liberal pause, is anathema.

Liberals hate the science of what is considered straight sexuality; traditional monogamy’s health and social benefits are well-known, but liberals dismiss such as puritanical and simple-minded.†† Liberals hate the science of conception; the obvious beginning of human life is conception -- science and reason show us this -- but (many) liberals choose ambiguity about the genesis of life, solely to placate consciences weighed down by the guilt and shame (imposed by no one but conscience) of abortion known by women (and men) who sought comfort in the life-denying tools used by science to evacuate the unwanted from countless wombs. Liberals also disregard the science about the grief, despair and alienation that follow such "private" choices.

So there is something ironic when Barack Obama declares that he will restore science to its rightful place. At best, this means that Barack Obama will use science selectively, finding just those facts that work, that are convenient. Forget that technology's wonders have unleashed countless nightmares on the planet, many of which were unleashed to chase other nightmares away. Barack Obama will restore science to its rightful, toxic, brutal place.

In other words, science will be used the same way under the new boss as it was used, allegedly, under the old boss. Cynically, manipulatively. Conveniently.

Just look at how smart these people are:


It's easy to boast.


Peace through dissent.


†The Industrial Revolution is added here because it's generally considered the transition to a more toxic era of human behavior. It may have been unavoidable; it quite clearly proved to be a very beneficial transition in many ways. But it is the beginning, in one sense, of humanity emitting "global warming gases" into the atmosphere.
††Not every liberal thinks this way, of course, but by and large liberalism shows a much greater acceptance of pre-marital sexuality -- and other variant forms -- than does conservatism. As for guilt, there are many in the sciences, particularly the social sciences (e.g., psychology), who believe guilt is unhealthy.


Tom Toles' cartoon can be found here.

©Bill Gnade 2009/Contratimes. All Rights Reserved.





Wednesday, October 31, 2007

On Books: HIGHLY Recommended

On this All Hallows' Eve, I shall make a prediction: Dinesh D’Souza’s latest book, What’s So Great About Christianity, will become a classic of Christian literature. And this glowing augury comes from someone who has so far only read half the book.

D’Souza’s book is the book I wish I had written. He strikes a perfect balance† between the lay and the semi-professional intellectual. The book’s only weakness is that it is too short: D’Souza could have spent more time fattening some of his arguments, though I am not suggesting that these arguments are anorexic. They might be just right and I am simply unable to see it. But I wish that some of the chapters were a little more substantial. (The bibliography and notes are certainly complete enough to satisfy the interests of more inquisitive readers.)

I promise you will be challenged and edified by this book. I think the book will set record sales numbers; I can see book groups springing up all around it. I urge you to get a copy and read it, and then tell your friends, and then blog about it. It surely deserves the broad and intense attention it will get. In fact, it deserves even more than that.

Oh. Another prediction: most of D’Souza’s detractors will not read any or all of the book. Many, in fact, will not expend the requisite intellectual strength necessary to read the entire thing.

Blessings and peace,

BG

†D'Souza also strikes a glorious balance between Protestant and Catholic expressions of Christian faith. Both sides in the Christian complex will find much to cheer about.

©Bill Gnade 2007/Contratimes. All Rights Reserved.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

On God Or No God

You may not agree with it, but I can't help but think you will find Avery Cardinal Dulles' essay, "God and Evolution," very engaging reading. It's too bad that it is not in book form; it would be nice to explore the ideas presented therein more completely. Read the whole thing (in other words, don't quit). Let me know what you think.

Blessings!

Gnade

Friday, June 09, 2006

Breaking Great Wind In The Storm's Eye, Part II: Roger Ebert On Al Gore

Trust me when I say that I am not opposed to the idea that the earth is warming. Trust me when I say I believe in climate change. Trust me when I even say that there has never been one instant in history when the earth has not either been getting cooler or getting warmer: Climate change is a constant. I get the big picture. I am about as green as green can be, within my means (only the really, really poor and the rich can be truly green). And trust me when I say that I am not agoraphobic: I am not afraid of crowds. But I might be Algore-aphobic, afraid of the crowds swirling around the low-pressure system which is the used-to-be "former President of the United States." (Ever see a satellite photo of a low-pressure system? It looks a lot like a bunch of spinning 6's. You know what I mean.)

Roger Ebert, the well-known film critic of the Chicago Sun-Times, admits in his recent review of Al Gore's film, An Inconvenient Truth, that he is, as critic, working as advocate. And, in fact, he is doing so as an absolutist, even an infallible one:
Am I acting as an advocate in this review? Yes, I am. I believe that to be "impartial" and "balanced" on global warming means one must take a position like Gore's. There is no other view that can be defended.
It is good to know that infallibility is not the sole claim of the Vatican: Al Gore, Roger Ebert, and the "scientists" are absolutely right. Next thing you know Messrs. Gore and Ebert will be dictating sacred scripture for our edification in the new Church. But I digress. There is more from Mr. Ebert:
In 39 years, I have never written these words in a movie review, but here they are: You owe it to yourself to see this film. If you do not, and you have grandchildren, you should explain to them why you decided not to.
I wish Mr. Ebert would explain, since he is clearly a science whiz, how it is that he and countless others, including Al Gore, have no problem dumping tens, nay, hundreds of thousands of gallons of burned jet fuel at 35,000 feet so they all can get to Cannes, France to watch movies. Perhaps he can also explain those solar-powered yachts at anchor just off-shore of that famed movie mecca. Perhaps Mr. Ebert will, eventually, explain his omissions about such emissions to his grandchildren. And I am absolutely certain that Mr. Ebert will tell his grandchildren that, when it comes to "burning fossil fuels" jet-setting from Cannes to Sundance, "no other view can be defended."

At least there is the one saving caveat to Ebert's review: it represents, in his words, "the truth as I understand it." Of course it does.

As I've said, An Inconvenient Truth is exactly that.

Peace.

©Bill Gnade 2006/Contratimes - All Rights Reserved.

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Thursday, June 08, 2006

Breaking Great Wind In The Storm's Eye: Al Gore And The Democratic Party

Former Vice President of the United States, Al Gore, needs the world to melt away.

As you know, and as I wrote about a couple of weeks ago, Al Gore, with the help of his friends at Apple Computer, Inc. (where he sits on the board of directors), has recently released a film, An Inconvenient Truth. Ebert & Roeper have given the film Two Thumbs Up. I will skip the science part of the whole debate for today, and I will admit that I have not seen the film, though I intend to. What I want to point out is that Al Gore has done something utterly precarious: He has pinned his whole political life on a swirling, whirling, convecting and advective maelstrom of gas. In short, he has put his career on the line for a bunch of variables, hoping to win our plaudits by the hoped-for triumph of one constant: The planet is getting warmer.

Trust me when I say this: Al Gore is doomed if the planet begins to get cooler. He is doomed if the polar caps are indeed getting deeper in their cores as they are shrinking on their edges (as some have posited). He is doomed if November 2008 is bitterly cold, especially if September and October are cold, too. His career will be so much vapor looking for one constant particle around which to coalesce; yet if the rarefied air he hopes to coalesce in should become utterly clean of any particles, his raindrop will never form, and he shall be lost in the gases he fears.

I am not suggesting that he is wrong for being concerned about global warming, or that humans impact the environment in often grotesque proportions. I am saying that he is wrong for politicizing this whole "crisis", this "planetary emergency", as he calls it.

But what I am really saying is that the Democratic National Party is doomed for the exact same reasons. You see, they have embraced Gore's "science" completely: They have endorsed his view and made it a plank in the Democratic Party's weather observation deck. Gore is The Man right now, and he has got to be relishing the attention. Egads, he was even The Man at the Cannes Film Festival.

Yesterday I received this email titled "Gore-bashing" from Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean. Let me remind you that Democrats repeatedly refer to the Republican leadership as "fearmongers". Here's the email:

Dear Fellow Democrat,

Hurricane season has arrived -- and two fresh studies point to a link between global warming and an increase in the number and power of storms like Hurricane Katrina.

What are Republicans doing about it? They're smearing former Vice President Al Gore.

One right-wing pundit compared Gore to Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propagandist. Another right-winger, who's been on the payroll of corporate special interests, likened Gore's pursuit of solutions to global warming to Adolf Hitler's pursuit of genocide.

I'm sending Al a note this week telling him to keep fighting, to keep standing up for the truth no matter how vicious the attacks. I thought he might like to hear from you, too. …

Facts are facts. Global warming is happening, and it threatens our very existence. But it also presents a historical opportunity to rise above politics and act boldly. Despite right-wing efforts to silence him, Al Gore has articulated one of the great moral challenges of our time and tried to move people to act.

This should not be a political issue. We need a conversation about climate change and its consequences. But special interests in Washington have a tight grip on the Republican leadership, and an entire network of corporate-funded front groups has emerged to deny reality and attack the messenger.

They hope that scorched-earth political tactics will cover up the reality that the scientific debate is one they've already lost.

Vice President Al Gore deserves our thanks for his courage and leadership. …

Did you know the National Academy of Sciences joined academies in the other G8 countries last year by concluding that global warming requires "prompt action"? Or that insurance companies are fleeing coastlines and charging huge premiums to avoid taking more losses from massive hurricanes? How about the fact that climate researchers have a new worry: that we could cross a tipping point that sends sea levels rising by 20 feet by the end of the century?

If you didn't know, that's by design. Corporate special interests are deeply invested in keeping us hooked to the status quo -- high gas prices, inefficiency, and dependence on foreign oil.

That's why last year, in the middle of a record-breaking hurricane season, Republicans in Congress and the White House gave oil companies $6 billion -- even as those companies ran away with the largest corporate profits in American history. And that's why we still have yet to see the Bush administration stand up and do anything to stop global warming.

Enough is enough, and people know it. Al Gore is demonstrating exactly the kind of courage and moral clarity that Democrats will bring when we take back Congress and win elections up and down the ballot this year.

The inconvenient truth is that global warming exists -- and thanks to Al Gore, it's now more likely that America will come together and do something about it.

Sincerely,
Governor Howard Dean, M.D.

And, according Dr. Dean, here are the two offensive quotes regarding Mr. Gore:
Citations

"You don't go see Joseph Goebbels' films to see the truth about Nazi Germany. You don't go see Al Gore's films to see the truth about global warming."
--Sterling Burnett, DaySide, Fox News, May 23, 2006.

"Gore believed in global warming almost as much as Hitler believed there was something wrong with the Jews."
--Bill Gray, as quoted in The Washington Post Magazine, May 28, 2006.

Now, I have no idea who Sterling Burnett (?) or Bill Gray are, but to Dr. Dean, this amounts to an all-out right-wing attack on Al Gore. And if you don't think that Dr. Dean's letter suggests that the Democrats have politicized this issue, then recall with me what happened May 31 when a group of concerned citizens protested outside the headquarters of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Hurricane Center. What was their beef (excuse the references to methane)? That NOAA has been "covering up the growing scientific link between severe hurricanes and global warming." And NOAA is doing this in a gross conspiracy along with the Bush Administration and EXXON! Don't believe me? Then read this statement from the protest's organizers. It is clear that the protesters are not members of the Republican Party.

(Let me point out that real scientists would not say that there is a "growing scientific link" between anything. There is an alleged "climatological, meterological" link or "growing atmospheric-chemical" link. But a "growing scientific link"? That's middle school stuff.)

And lastly, look at this from the Democratic National Committee. It pretty much proves what the Democrats have in mind.
***
Why has Al Gore hitched his wagon to a melting polar ice cap? Simple. It is a perfectly hot topic right now, and it is perfectly ambiguous. It is the sort of scientific "fact" that can be used for glorious political gain, because it is one that has the appearance of certitude and yet is, by all honest accounts, a field of broad uncertainty. Moreover, Al Gore has hitched his wagon to so much gas because he wants to distance himself from "Big Oil", you know, the REAL source of global warming and the impending calamity. And the Democrats have hitched themselves to the very same vapors.

THAT is why they desperately need the planet to get hotter, at least for a couple of more years. They need the calamity in order to save not only all of us, but all of them. They need the planet to melt so badly they can see water already rising in New York. They are so knee deep in it that they might just propose putting life jackets in voting booths.

It is a bit of a joke when we hear Democrats insist that this "crisis" should not be a partisan issue. Of course it should: The Democrats have made it one. They are the real scientists after all, a fact well-established now that they've shown the Republicans to be all about Intelligent Design (which is about the philosophy of science, the very foundations of it, and not about science per se; which is a fact lost on critics of Intelligent Design). And it is the Democrats, long critics of Big Oil, who have laid the blame for most of the global warming on that giant industry.

Of course, there is great irony watching all those liberals, so concerned about global warming, flying over to Cannes to watch Al Gore's film. Gore also scarred the sky in a trans-Atlantic crossing. And now he flies around the globe, telling us all that the atmosphere is fragile and is becoming our enemy.

An Inconvenient Truth is exactly that.

Peace.

©Bill Gnade 2006/Contratimes - All Rights Reserved.
Al Gore photograph courtesy of CBS News (via Google photos)

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Tuesday, May 16, 2006

A Really Inconvenient Fact

I may not have a B.S. in any scientific discipline, but that has never stopped me from recognizing BS, especially when I step in it. I know, I know: it is dubious at best to come to Contratimes for a science lesson, but once in a while it is OK for us to think like scientists, you know, critically.

My starting point is the rather recent installment of PBS's NOVA called "Dimming the Sun", which I watched a couple of weeks ago (and where I stepped into some serious BS). The point of that rather stimulating science program was that particulate matter released into the atmosphere as a result of human industrial activity, along with myriad contrails produced by airliners, combine to reduce the amount of sunlight that reaches the lower levels of the atmosphere. Studies in the Maldives, for instance, have shown that air pollution may indeed reduce sunlight by as much as 10%. The result, obviously, is that air temperatures in "smoggy" zones are cooler. And cooler air has drastic effects on weather patterns, perhaps even distorting weather and (ocean ?) currents to such a degree that droughts and other sundry calamities occur.

But this is only half of NOVA's story. The other half has to do with reducing air pollutants, especially the particulate matter associated with solar dimming. The idea is that with cleaner air more sunlight reaches the lower atmosphere and ground, thus increasing air temperatures. In other words, the theory is that visible pollutants are masking the invisible catastrophe awaiting us: MASSIVE global warming due to invisible and dangerous levels of greenhouse gases which will "trap" heat should more light penetrate the atmosphere. For a full explanation and a virtual synopsis of the NOVA program, read the Wikipedia article "Global dimming." I urge you to read it not merely because it is interesting, but because of what it never mentions. And you know what? NOVA never mentions "it" either.

But before I tell you what "it" is, I must make one observation about the NOVA program. I might be wrong about this, but I don't think I am: NOVA did not interview a single person with a countervailing opinion regarding dimming, cooling or warming. Not one! Add to that the fact that NOVA only aired the opinions of at best five experts, and one MUST conclude that NOVA might best be taken with something like a grain of salt.

Permit me to back into what is missing in both NOVA's "scientific inquiry" and Wikipedia's article. This passage from Wikipedia is a great starting point. I mean, this is science at its (political?) best:
It is now thought that the effect (global dimming) is probably due to the increased presence of aerosols [sic] particles in the atmosphere. Aerosol particles absorb solar energy and reflect sunlight back to space. The pollutants can also become nuclei for cloud droplets. It is thought that the water droplets in clouds coalesce around the particles, and more aerosol particles result in the clouds consisting of a greater number of smaller droplets, which in turn makes them more reflective: bouncing more sunlight back into space.
Now there is nothing wrong with this virtual rehashing of NOVA's major premise. It is, for our purposes, completely true. But there is something massive, literally, missing from all of this, and one wonders how it could not be mentioned even in passing. I wonder if you have guessed what "it" is. Need a clue? Well, try this one, or this.

Yes, that's right: Volcanoes. What is missing in the global dimming report is the earth itself: that the earth is its own heat engine; and is its own cooler.

Remember in 1991 when Mt. Pinatubo absolutely ripped a hole into our earth's atmosphere, belching material in unimaginable quantities into the earth's very stratosphere? Remember what you were told, that the eruption would affect the entire globe for years? Remember hearing the same when Mt. Saint Helens blew apart in 1980? Remember hearing that such eruptions would cool the earth's atmosphere, even though they hurled millions of tons of gas and heat skyward? Well, if you need a refresher on Pinatubo alone, read this, this and this.

Now let's for a moment return to the Wikipedia quote above, where it is mentioned that global dimming is a result of the presence of aerosols in the upper atmosphere. Alas, there is no mention of volcanic activity. Yet in all three Pinatubo links above we read something like this:
Pinatubo injected about 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, where it reacted with water to form a hazy layer of AEROSOL particles composed primarily of sulfuric acid droplets. Over the course of the next two years strong stratospheric winds spread these aerosol particles around the globe.

Unlike the lower atmosphere (or troposphere, which extends from the surface to roughly 10 km), the stratosphere does not have rain clouds as a mechanism to quickly wash out pollutants. Therefore, a heavy influx of aerosol pollutants, like the plume from Mount Pinatubo, will remain in the stratosphere for years until the processes of chemical reactions and atmospheric circulation can filter them out. In the case of Mount Pinatubo, the result was a measurable cooling of the Earth's surface for a period of almost two years.

Because they scatter and absorb incoming sunlight, aerosol particles exert a cooling effect on the Earth's surface. The Pinatubo eruption increased aerosol optical depth in the stratosphere by a factor of 10 to 100 times normal levels measured prior to the eruption.
Oopsy! Just a small detail left out of Wikipedia and NOVA's uh, science. Call it a mere blippish oversight. And to think someone went to the Maldives in the 1990's to run tests to determine whether smog blocks sunlight!

Moreover, what is also not mentioned in either source is the effect the earth's core temperature has on climate; that the earth is not a frozen ice ball (though surface materials are indeed "frozen" in the scientific sense), but a sphere with an incredibly volatile heat source not far below its skin. That source of heat is not only important in maintaining life on this planet, it is important in this discussion of global warming and cooling. But more importantly, that NOVA and Wikipedia never mention either volcanic activity or the earth's radiant heat suggests that real scientific inquiry is not what either is interested in. Finally, neither the TV program nor the online encyclopedia mentions increases or decreases in solar activity, which also wreak havoc on terrestrial atmospherics.

Al Gore has released a new movie called "An Inconvenient Truth," in which he apparently divides for us the facts from fiction regarding global warming. I will venture a guess that the complexities of vulcanism and any one volcano's impact on climate make naught but a small appearance in Gore's film. But that's fine: he is a politician, after all, and he needs science to work for his agenda, which is, in part, to distance himself from "Big Oil," you know, that industry allegedly most responsible for global warming (and the one allegedly associated with Republicans). But that NOVA, an apparently neutral science program, should have neglected not only any countervailing opinions but the facts of Pinatubo––that such an eruption lowered global temperatures as much as .6 degrees C in 15 months––should give us all pause.

There is more that NOVA failed to tell us in "Dimming the Sun," but I will leave that for another time. But let us not in all this permit such "fact-based" programs and resources to have a dimming effect on our much needed minds. We need to think clearly about the complexities before us. I mean, let us beware (unlike Al Gore) of committing non causa pro causa fallacies, you know, mistaking correlation with causality. Gore and NOVA might be right, but we won't ever know if we accept only part of the data.

Peace.

©Bill Gnade 2006/Contratimes - All Rights Reserved.

For a complete transcript of NOVA's program, go here.


Wednesday, April 27, 2005

When armor is a liability (Thoughts on the Iraq War, Part I)

[updated May 3, 2005]

(Monday's New York Times [4/25] reported that a particular U.S. Marine unit in Iraq had suffered heavy losses. Much of the loss was blamed on poorly armored Humvees. The reader will recall, too, that late last year Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was questioned by a soldier about insufficiently armored vehicles. Today, as last year, the media point a finger at the alleged failings of the Defense Department and the Bush Administration to adequately protect soldiers in harm's way. And Sunday's [5/1] NYT editorial rebuked the DOD for failing to adequately protect soldiers in the field.)

[updated November 24, 2006]

(As predicted here in this essay, American soldiers are indeed experiencing difficulties with military vehicles retro-fitted with armor. The vehicles were never designed to carry such weight.)


When I worked as a photojournalist, I would occasionally hear this sort of remark at the scene of a gruesome car accident: "Had they been going slower, the injuries would not have been so severe." Or, in the case of a collision that was newsworthy despite the fact no one was hurt, one might hear: "Had they been going faster, they would not have been so lucky."


That these two comments -- both on the surface oozing with common sense though utterly inane  -- proves the point that most people who speak thusly are simply not thinking. For if two cars were indeed traveling faster, then they would have been in different spaces at different times, and thus would not have collided at all. There would be no injuries; and there would be no news. The truly common sense thing would be to say, "If only they had been going faster this crash would not have happened." For that is accurate.

The same goes for cars traveling slower. Two drivers chugging along the same road would not ever hit each other at point A if they have not yet reached point A; nor will they ever reach it simultaneously.

Of course, we know what people MEAN by these inane statements. They MEAN to say that "at the point" of impact it would have been better had they been going slower. But the reality remains: If they were going slower, there would be no point of impact.

Thus highlights the very stupid observations offered by those critics of the war in Iraq who believe that armored Humvees would protect soldiers: "If only they had Kevlar window panels, these soldiers would not have died."

But let me rip somewhat irrationally on this idea for a moment. For the critics' arguments are akin to this: "If the bullet that just passed through Cpl. Smith's waist had instead hit his government-issued canteen two inches to the right of entry, he'd be alive now. How dare the Bush administration only provide one canteen to each of our servicemen, and how dare Rumsfeld require the canteen be worn in one specific spot!"

Now let me be a bit more rational. A Humvee is a heavy, rugged vehicle, with suspension, transmission and various other components designed to provide optimal all-terrain behaviors in a variety of war situations. It was NEVER designed to be an armored personnel carrier. It was designed to be relatively fast (0-60 in 45 seconds, I believe), though not nearly as fast as most Democrats' Chevy Suburbans. Moreover, it is tuned according to both its dry weight, and its weight under load.

Imagine then, what would be required if all Humvees were retrofitted in the field with armor. The vehicle would be heavier; harder to drive (vision would be obscured); it would be slower. Springs, drivetrains, gas mileage: each of these would be affected. And thus the vehicle would become a potentially GREATER danger and liability. And then THIS would be the hue and cry:

"The Bush Administration and Donald Rumsfeld are being criticized for their failure to protect troops with better Humvees. For ever since the Defense Department retrofitted the Humvees with armor, the vehicles have become easy targets, as they are slower, less agile, and far more difficult to drive. And now that the insurgents know that the vehicles are more fortified, larger roadside bombs have been used to destroy these much more vulnerable targets. And in some cases soldiers have been killed because the modified vehicles, now barely getting 3 miles per gallon of fuel (down from 8), have run out of gas in the midst of ambushes.

"We call for a complete overhaul of the Humvee project. That the Administration would so poorly protect our soldiers with armor that has cost more lives than it saved should anger Americans everywhere."

Thus would opine the New York Times.

Moreover, let's not forget that soldiers' behavior would change, perhaps endangering them even more, once they perceived themselves to be "protected." Safety gear often causes many a young man and woman to throw caution to the wind.

Look. Soldiers are still killed while wearing high-tech gear. Police officers are killed sometimes BECAUSE they are wearing bullet-proof vests (a small caliber round can enter through an unprotected arm hole and ricochet off the inside walls of the vest and rip up the chest cavity, a worse injury than if the officer was without a vest). If that's the case, should soldiers and officers NOT be issued this gear? Or should they be issued even MORE gear, protecting them from small arms fire, for sure, but limiting their movements, making them vulnerable to merely falling over like beetles on their backs?

Let us recall, too, that motor vehicle air bags, those great safety innovations with such promise, sometimes kill people, as do seatbelts. Sometimes the only person to survive a car wreck is that person ejected from a tumbling vehicle due to having not worn a safety restraint.

The fact remains that bad things happen in war, particularly the kind of war which is Iraq: A war where the enemy wears no uniforms, flies no flag, drives cars without insignias, and mercilessly kills any target, including itself.

Kevlar is a good thing. When and if possible, vehicles and the soldiers who operate them should be protected. But there are variables to protection and war that no war critic can either predict or remove.

You know, if only people could think a little more slowly they wouldn't smash themselves into such silly little bits.

©Bill Gnade 2005/Contratimes - All Rights Reserved.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

Krugman, that gnostic

In the inaugural post for Contratimes, it is only fitting that I begin with New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, whose most recent op-ed, "An Academic Question" (NYT, 4.5.05) was tagged with this delicious subhead (NYT emailed edition): 'There are so few Republican university professors because the party tends to favor revelation over research.'

After reading Mr. Krugman's piece, I find it unlikely that the subhead, serving as precis, is Krugman's thesis; rather, it appears that it his conclusion. It is at least the conclusion of the New York Times editor who wrote that subhead, as there is no such line found in Krugman's essay.

But one would think that, with an editor of such apparent caliber perusing Krugman's piece, he or she would have at least noticed that Krugman's conclusion is itself not derived from evidence, but by something akin to revelation.

To this writer, Krugman's entire piece smacks of gnosticism, that ancient Christian heresy whose adherents claimed a special, privileged knowledge over their peers. For Krugman intimates, without presenting anything other than what he apparently gleaned from tea leaves, the reason why so few conservatives choose academic professions: conservatives resist intellectual progress. Moreover, Krugman just KNOWS, instinctively and intuitively, that conservatives, and Republicans under their sway, are simply anti-intellectual, medieval in scientific aptitude and mystical in epistemology.

Curiously, what Krugman is ultimately saying is identical to what one of my dinner companions said over our evening victuals: Liberals are in academia because they are smarter than conservatives.

Yes, yes, of course, liberals are smart. In fact, they're Krugman-smart.

Unwittingly (perhaps) Krugman has opened the entire debate regarding the predominance of liberals and the dearth of conservatives in academia to the full light of religion and philosophy. For his concerns are all about religious and philosophical presuppositions; about the foundations of knowledge (epistemology) and reality (metaphysics); about who determines truth, and who or what controls the rules as to how truth is ascertained.

Unfortunately, that light might be too bright for Krugman's concerns. Culling from surveys and data any real, quantifiable evidence that conservatives are academically deficient eludes Krugman's capabilities, as he merely extrapolates from the well-documented fact that liberals control academia. (That Krugman also ignores the operative word - control - is telling. Liberals do control academia.) Krugman essentially argues that because liberals sit in high places, and that they have embraced the grand modern paradigms, then conservatives, who are not in high places, must oppose those prevailing paradigms. Otherwise conservatives would sit in academic chairs.

(Of course, this is like saying that because the Pope is Catholic, those who are not the Pope must be anti-Catholic. Otherwise, they'd be Pope. A ridiculous fallacy, for sure.)

But what, pray tell, would become of Krugman's writing career without some reference to that laughingstock construct - Creationism - and the baneful term 'theocracy'? For Krugman, without flinching, implies that Republicans are theocrats, woefully ignorant of the finer points of Darwinism and the First Amendment. If more Republicans were Darwinists rather than fundamentalists, Krugman might say, perhaps Republicans would receive academia's most revered prizes.


KRUGMAN AND EVOLUTION

What Krugman fails to examine is what really irks conservatives (though by no means all). Conservatives are dubious of not so much evolution, but Evolution, that supra-scientific paradigm that declares what is beyond science's purview: that Evolution is all there is. Countless conservatives (yes, even conservative Christians) accept evolution: they see it in hybrid plants and exotic dog breeds every day. What they don't accept is the over-reaching claim that Evolution - Evolution with a capital E - is paramount.

Open-minded thinkers do not hold tenaciously to this supra-scientific dogma; nor do most critical thinkers who seek a new paradigm, or who are pressing closer to a unifying theory. Excluding a Designer, for instance, from scientific inquiry is like saying that close examination of an ancient building is only scientific if one precludes any concept of a builder. Yes, the modern scientist is expected to examine the parts of that ancient building - cornices, footings, pilasters and partitions - all interesting unto themselves; but he or she is not permitted to infer a builder, or to inquire of one's existence, since the concept of builder is pre-excluded as unscientific.

That this strikes the common man as ludicrous is clear; that it strikes the sophisticated as nonsense is no less crystalline.

I once knew a world-renowned biologist - Harvard-educated, an expert on estuaries - who shared how his 'love of Jesus Christ' infused his biology and informed his understanding of natural selection. For this man, a self-described evangelical, a Designer was not outside the realm of science; nor was design disqualified a priori. Science and God were in fact compatible.

No doubt the rejoinder to this is that God is not empirically verifiable, though one would be hard-pressed to find a scientific discovery that proves that.

But empirical justification, one may counter, is itself elusive: There were many 'scientific' things once considered empirically justified that are now dismissed as nonsense, the stationary earth being one of them. Science itself evolves, tossing away long trusted theories and facts like so much flotsam. Why, pray tell, do we think humanity cannot or will not discover God via scientific methodology? Why would anyone limit the scope of such human inquiry? Who dares restrict what may be deemed testable? Why such pessimism about the limits of science?

That conservative thinkers tend to be more sentient of their presuppositions; that they tend to be mindful of their own predilections for coloring data according to those presuppositions, may in fact preclude them from gaining equal footing in academia with those deemed infallible merely because they embrace the dominant paradigms.

Krugman can snicker all he wants at those he thinks are misguidedly open to the idea that the universe is not a closed system. (For that's what this all ultimately comes down to, whether the universe is open or closed.) But this writer's experience has been that the brightest and most creative thinkers have always believed that the universe is not some self-contained, self-perpetuating entity. They have been open to other frames of reference; they've thought outside the paradigm; and they've doubted whether what one sees is indeed what one gets.

As for theocracy, Krugman should take cover from the religious left that is stomping on the threshold of the American cult. For the religious left has its own goals for America, goals deemed 'true' and pleasing to God. (See God bless you please, Mr. Robinson, for starters)


©Bill Gnade 2005/Contratimes - All Rights Reserved.

--'It will never be known what acts of cowardice have been motivated by the fear of not looking sufficiently progressive.' Charles Peguy