My favorite observation on engineering comes from Frank E. Mosier, formerly a top executive at Standard Oil, because it recognizes both the possibility of greatness and the impossibility of perfection. In a commencement address at the University of Pittsburgh School of Engineering in 1989, Mosier said, “All engineering is glorified failure analysis, and great feats of engineering are nothing more than successful bets that your ideas will be more economical or efficient or beautiful without being disastrous.” (Andrew B. Wilson)
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I promised I would comment on Rachel Maddow's report to which I linked below (June 7, 2010). Part of me wishes I hadn't made such a promise. It's not that I have nothing to say, it's that I have little to say that may be interesting.
What Ms. Maddow intends to highlight in her report is that the technology used at present to cap the massive oil leak 5,000 feet beneath the surface of the Gulf of Mexico appears utterly archaic. She notes the antiquity of the techniques at hand; there is an ironic tone throughout her report. The thrust of her story: things have not changed much in the last 30 years. To her, that's inexcusable.
But is it inexcusable? Is it fair of her to hold such faith in technology's progress? Is her criticism rooted in reality, or has she assumed something religious, namely a belief that mankind is always progressing, or must progress, or can progress, if the collective will and mind are focused on the highest ideals?
I note that nothing has much changed in thirty years in stopping fires. Fire trucks still race through town and city streets, hoses and nozzles are tugged and pulled; water is pumped from tanker or hydrant and aimed to douse flames. Yes, occasionally foam is used, but the method is nearly the same; besides, foam is used only to suppress relatively small conflagrations (except, I believe, at airports). But things have not much changed, really, in the method.
I note too that the electricity coming to my neighborhood comes the way it has for far more than 30 years. Improvements are obvious, but they are relatively minor: the technology has been honed, but not yet perfected, and surely not transcended.
The way water is delivered from well to kitchen tap; this, too, has not changed much over the years, at least here, where I live. There is a pump; the physics of varying pressures still follow the typical pipe-and-hose technologies used seemingly forever. (And while many in my town have wells, the town water system is built on a reservoir/gravity model, a model which is undeniably Caesarean.)
I have sat in airplanes that have not been substantively improved upon -- in any theoretical sense -- for decades: I have sat on airplanes that are perhaps 30 years old. Such planes still roll down long runways; they still roll on round rubber tires, and they still jostle passengers in rough air.
So, one might observe that the BP disaster is to be fixed only one way: by using technologies no one seems able to improve upon.
But there's a wrinkle even here, as it seems things have improved. Ms. Maddow notes that the first disaster analogous to the BP spill, one that occurred in 1979, was only 200 feet beneath the ocean's surface: The Ixtoc well dumped 30,000 barrels per day into the very same Gulf of Mexico, and it took nearly ten months to bring that well under control.
And yet today, right now, BP is dealing with a well 25 TIMES deeper than Ixtoc; a mere 55 days into the current disaster, the flow of oil is not yet stopped, but it is at least restricted.
Indeed, this morning oil is still leaking at a harrowing rate in the Gulf, but the technology seems considerably improved since 1979, though, of course, the current state of that technology is not what one would describe as revolutionary. But that BP has managed to capture huge quantities of oil over the past few days says something about the state of technology here, that it is not necessarily as archaic, or as absurdly feckless, as Ms. Maddow portrayed.
Ms. Maddow's report also fails to fully enlarge upon the news event she uses to begin her report: the June 1979 oil spill along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). What is interesting is that the TAPS was opposed for years by environmental groups, and yet such groups' dire predictions about the overall environmental impact of the TAPS have not been fulfilled, as the TAPS has not been an unmitigated environmental disaster. The June 1979 leak was caused by the pipeline settling; there were several leaks that occurred because of settling along the line's impressive length. But there has been nary a significant leak along that line, or surely not as many as predicted. Curiously, some of the leaks occurred as a result of sabotage (e.g., 16,000 barrels in 1978). Even one bullet hole made quite a mess (258,000 gallons in 2001).
But what Ms. Maddow doesn't explore is the obvious, that a leak on land is far less difficult to contain and control than any leak is under water. Is the BP Gulf Oil spill an argument for dry land exploration and drilling? (I ask this, of course, with the assumption that there are no viable alternatives to oil that are at the ready.) Is this an argument that, if ocean drilling is still desired, shallower depths should be preferred? Or are we grateful that, if a disaster should occur at sea, it is as far from land as possible?
Lastly, allow me to quickly explore Ms. Maddow's last assertion that the oil industry is the most profitable industry in the world. (No, it isn't.) But first we need to clarify our terms. What does "most profitable" mean? Does it mean the business that nets the largest number (in $$)? Well, then, perhaps the oil industry is wildly profitable, as some oil companies post quarterly profits in the tens of billions of dollars (though I guess Wal-Mart is now vying for top spot in the "most profitable" category). But "most profitable" in the technical sense refers to those companies who show the largest profits above margin, above their total operating expenses. Those huge numbers seen in the oil industry are only 10% over margin, whereas profits in other industries show profits 20-30% over margin. Not long ago, when everyone was up in arms over Exxon-Mobil's massive profits (as a total number in $$), which were a mere 10% over margin, American Express and Apple were showing profit margins well above 20%. Surely the more profitable businesses are not necessarily those whose quarterly earnings statements show the largest possible dollar amount. If Big Oil is to be loathed for making profits of 10%, why not Big Credit and Big Computer, who "steal" from their customers, enjoying profits of 25 to 35%?
(Please, don't send me links from Forbes or wherever showing me I am wrong here. I am not. There are businesses that are far more "profitable" than the oil industry. Please note, again, how I am using the term, as a percentage of total revenues. [A $1 billion profit sounds impressive, but not if you've spent a $1 trillion to get it.])
Anyhow, just some thoughts.
Peace.
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